 What's better,
424 or 432 ?
Coming from the land where they call football, football and most of
the males and it must be said some of the females know what the
offside rule is; the game of American football (not to be confused
with soccer) or as it is known within the US Gridiron is a game of
physical strategy, which is played with two major influences, offence
and defence.
Similarities can be drawn to the backgammon offence and defence
strategy, in that both games are played tactically.
In American football play is dictated by the quarter back, it is his
responsibility to enact out the coaches instructions and shout them
out to his fellow players.
Backgammon doesn't quite have the same luxury, but it does have a
number combination which could be introduced called 432..or Michael's
Rule.
Take the following scenario. It is near to the end, your opponent whom
we shall call Red has started to bear off his pieces until by a
unfortunate bit of luck WHITE (you) managed to hit one of Red's
checkers. Shortly after that WHITE has ended up with a closed board
with a perfect distribution of his spare checkers and RED is trapped
on the bar. Now from a winning position Red becomes more anxious. But
should he be?
Is Red too far away from the victory or can he still be said to be the
big favorite?
Read this next piece of text and will and up having an easy tool for
assessing these kind of positions. This is 'Michael's 432 Rule' with
Red's probability of winning 30%.
In defining Michael's 432 A quick rule of thumb is easy and this is
it:
When 'the player with one man on the bar' has 4 men left on his ace
point, the probability of 'the player with the closed board' winning
the game is between 30% and 20%. Notice the 4-3-2 sequences of
numbers, hence the name of the rule.
The positioning of the spare checkers of 'The Player with the closed
board' defines whether it has to be 30% of 20%. If the distribution is
perfect with a spare on the 4, 5 and 6-point then the high value, 30%,
should be used. If the spares all are situated on the ace point the
20% should be used.
Looking at the position above, WHITE has an excellent distribution, so
using the rule will give WHITE a 30% chance of winning. However, in
the current position RED is still a big favorite though.
But what if RED had more than 4 checkers on the ace point?
Easy! Because the rule is valid from having 4 to 9 men on the ace
point.
This means that with RED having 9 men on the ace point, WHITE will be
between 70% and 80% favourite as shown below.
White's probability of winning is 80%
An example of a bad distribution of spare checkers is shown below.
White's probability of winning is now 70%
A thing to remember is that below 4 men and above 9 men on the ace
point, the rule is not accurate enough to be used.
So next time you find yourself on the bar looking at a closed board
you will always know the probability of winning the match.
Of course you would also find yourself at the other side of the table
while closing out the opponent. Michael's 432 rule applies for both
sides.
HIKE….
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Backgammon quick tips and hits for online play - 12.10.2006
Some things you might, or might know when playing online backgammon
Opening
gambits - 12.10.2006
By far the most important move you make in backgammon is usually your first one.
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