 What are the
chances?
Probably like most people you've been faced with the
tradesman who stands in front of you, takes a long deep breath and you
know exactly what's coming, 'It's not a cheap job'…'We have to do this
and that' and so it goes on and on, until you hear yourself saying it.
This is what is called 'in the trade' the inevitability of the
tradesman and his quotes, or as he likes to call it estimate.
This estimate is what makes the difference between taking
the job and just letting the place fall to bits. The assumption that
you have no alternative is like a preemptive strike on your wallet and
on your mental ability to take in the figures that have just been
proposed. The estimate is, the line drawn in the sand, cross over and
you're committed.
The backgammon equivalent of an estimate, works in
much the same way as it is an evaluation of your position, a self
reconnaissance of what is your best move, before commitment. Looking
at positions with regard to their chances of a winning movement is how
you as a player estimate your ability to win games and matches. You
estimate that the dice will allow you so much movement, maybe if you
play a double it could go against you, so strategising checkers as
well as dice play can bring about a reasonable estimate for success.
If there's at least a quarter of a chance of winning that
is; then go for it. There are some occasions when your ability to
estimate isn't required when a precise move comes available, for
example you have two checkers on your ace-point and the opposition two
pieces on their 5 and 2 points. They double. Which leaves 19 rolls to
get both pieces off out of the remaining 36, giving you a 53% chance
to win, therefore you take. .Now suppose they're on the 5 and 1
points. 23 good rolls that's 64%. You still take. But just supposing
they're on the 4 and 1 points.
Now they have 29 good rolls or 80%, time to drop. That's
where the right estimate comes into play, the better you can estimate
the more chances you have to win. Of course the next time your
tradesman calls it would be wise to get a second estimate, chances are
your first one could be wrong.
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