 Ploys and plans
Almost before you go online, having a plan is essential to
developing a game plan. There is of course no way to predict the rolls
or even the passage of play of your opponent but coming into a game
dead cold without some sort of idea is tantamount to a losing move.
Even if you do eventually lose the first game, restricting your loss
to maybe just one or two points by using a doubling strategy can make
your opponent more nervous than you anticipate. Avoid a gammon at all
costs, so as to keep your opposition on edge.
Should you be ahead in a set, play cautiously there's also more chance
to win that way as you can be more adventurous accepting a double even
when you're behind.
Try to curb aggressive moves, doubling, accepting a double or
declining a double if losing the game takes your opponent to the
Crawford Rule game or one point from winning the set. At this point
you have less than a 25 percent chance of winning the set because you
would then need to win at least two games in a row to win the set due
to the Crawford rule.
If your opposition is going to win the set by winning the game, double
and go all out to win the game. Losing a gammon or backgammon at this
point won't matter anyway, as you'll lose the set by losing the game,
points become immaterial then...
On average 1.8 points are won each game due to doubles, gammons and
backgammons. An average 11 points are won each set, usually seven by
the winner and four by the opponent. That leaves six to seven points
per set.
Normally you have to win four games to win the set, so in theory you
can lose three games and still be capable of coming back and winning.
So if you are behind don't worry you can always get back to win in the
end.
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